Simulating Changes in Hydrological Extremes—Future Scenarios for Morocco

This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing climate change scenario inputs have been performed better understand the in magnitude frequency of extreme events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied all major rivers Morocco, including total 16 basins cover majority country. An ensemble temperature precipitation input parameter sets was generated analyze uncertainty, an approach can be extended other regions world, data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty also included analyses. Historical comprise period 1979–2021, while (2015–2100) were under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns changing flood projected; these changes significant when considered as proportion land area Two types identified, based on their different behavior scenarios. In Northern/Mediterranean we observe decrease intensity by 2050 both SSPs, whereas for remaining catchments higher more frequent high-flow form flash floods detected. Our revealed this is consequence reduction rainfall accumulation SSPs first type basins, opposite applies type. More generally, propose methodology does not rely observed time series discharge, so especially where those do exist or available, undertake projections most data-scarce method allows hazards estimated essentially any region world.